To be commercially viable, sheep need to produce a certain amount of revenue.  Costs are numerous: buildings, pasture, hay, corn, vaccines, de-wormers, veterinarian costs, identification supplies, gates, feeders, tools, machinery, shearing, manure handling, mineral, fuel, and replacement breeding stock all need to be paid for before a real profit can be made.  Just because you may own some of these things already, doesn't mean that they are free - in many cases these assets can be rented or sold.  If the sheep use it, the sheep need to pay for it.  Depending on various factors, an ewe can incur $140 in costs per by the time you wean her lambs at 60 days.

If we look at NSIP data, participating Polypay ewes bear 2.21 lambs per ewe.  About 85% of these are weaned at an average weight of 47 lbs.  The five year average price on lambs this weight is around $1.33/lb.  This is about $117 per ewe.  For Suffolks that figure is 1.9 lambs per ewe x 78% survival x 74 lbs x $1.24 = $136.  Neither sheep made money. 

Of course there is variation within a breed.  For example, my purebred Polypays average around 2.47 lambs per ewe (lifetime average), wean 80% (not counting bottle lambs) at around 54 lbs.  This equates to about $142.  But this doesn't produce an acceptable profit either.

What if you cross the two?  Published total heterosis rates for cross bred lambs is 17.8%.  So, if I cross my Polypay ewes with a NSIP Suffolk, my theoretical revenues climb to $164.  That equates to about $24 profit per ewe at weaning.  If feeding the lambs yields another $15 per lamb, a reasonable profit can be made.

This all sounds very nice on paper, but what happens in the barn?  How big are these Suffolks that are weaning 74 lb lambs at 60 days?  These rams often weigh 375 lbs or more.  When that ram stands next to those 180 lb Polypay ewes, you might start to wonder how it is going to work out.  With about 86% of my mature Polypays dropping triplets each year, I can expect trouble.  You can only fit so many 12-16 lbs lambs in a 180 lb ewe before something gives.

So, what does this all mean?  Is commercial sheep production viable?  Fortunately, the answer is 'yes'.  Is there a secret breed or cross that will will guarantee you a profit?  After 20 years of experimenting, I've come to the conclusion that the answer is 'no'! 

The ability of various breed's ability to be profitable does vary.  However, there is enough variation within a breed that almost any breed can be profitable.  Cross breeding can improve production, but results do vary and not everything that works on paper works in the barn.  Successful breeding requires management, measurement and an open mind.  The breeder must make decisions based on facts, not feelings or theories.

Over the last 6 years, my flock makeup has been 2% Suffolk, 4% Romanov, 14% Columbia, 21% Polypay and 58% Crossbred.  If I look at the sheep that met or exceeded the target production threshold, I find that 20% were Columbia, 33% Polypay and 47% Crossbred.  In addition, I find that 47% of the top producers descended from 10% of the maternal lines.  What conclusions do I draw from this?

1.  First and foremost, keep your best ewes and their daughters.  It doesn't matter what breed they are or what they look like,  

2.  Know your flock's strengths and weaknesses.  Cross breeding is a very quick way to fix problems.  If you're flock is already very productive, make sure you bring in rams that will build on their success, not ruin it. 

3.  Select breeding stock based on the performance of the individual sheep's lineage, not breed averages.  I've seen Polypays outgrow Suffolks and Columbias that drop more lambs than Romanovs.  Individual performance trumps "breed".

4.  Look at the overall productivity of the breeding stock you are purchasing.  Total productivity depends on body size, prolificacy, milking ability, assisted birth rates, survival rates, longevity of the ewe, etc.  Increasing one characteristic at the expense of another doesn't improve your bottom line.

Terminal sire breeding (left)

These (5) prolific ewes are nursing 17 lambs!